Solo Homers

I was talking with a friend earlier today about how it seems Albert has hit an unusual amount of solo homers this season, at least compared to a lot of other power hitters. Well, part of that is due to short term memory: #5 has hit 6 solo blasts in a row now between August 26th and his multi-home run game yesterday on 9/12. Also, going back to August 13th, 10 of his last 11 homers have resulted in only 1 RBI.

On the season, 24 of the 38 that have gone yard were solo, or 63.2%

That's not too unusual, and before I go further, we have to remember that most all of this data are prone to the small sample size rut that is always fun to look at but rarely that informative. This is more for curiosity's sake.

For his career, Pujols has hit 220 solo homers out of a total of 405: 54.3%

I wanted to look at the total # of solo shots / total # HRs from the league totals for the length of Pujols's career, but it would take way too long to count out solos from 2000+ lines of data from www.baseball-reference.com If anyone knows an easier way to do this, please let me know - I'm not used to looking up information online and so I am not fully aware of what's available out there.

Anyway, broken down year by year, Pujols's numbers (solo / total, rounded up to the nearest decimal) look like the following:

2001: 21/37 = 56.8%
2002: 14/33 = 42.4%
2003: 22/42 = 52.4%
2004: 26/45 = 57.8%
2005: 21/40 = 52.5%
2006: 22/48 = 45.8%
2007: 20/31 = 64.5% (sidenote: He almost missed 30 HRs. Only hit 2 in final month and a half)
2008: 20/36 = 55.6%
2009: 30/46 = 65.2%
2010: 24/38 = 63.2%
Totals: 220/405 = 54.3%

Obviously, in his first 6 seasons his solo rates ranged from 42.4% to the highest at 57.8%. Again, small sample sizes, but in the last 4 years, it has ranged from 55.6% to 65.2%. There are too many factors that could begin to explain this, ranging from not performing in pressure situations to not receiving a pitch in the strike zone and so on, but there seems to be some sort of growing trend here.

I wanted to compare Albert to the other "most dangerous hitter in baseball" so I looked at A-Rod's totals from the same 2001-2010 timespan. They are as follows.

2001: 27/51 = 53.0%
2002: 29/56 = 51.8%
2003: 28/46 = 60.9%
2004: 18/35 = 51.4%
2005: 27/47 = 57.4%
2006: 16/34 = 47.1%
2007: 18/53 = 34.0%
2008: 23/34 = 67.6%
2009: 15/29 = 51.7%
2010: 10/21 = 47.6%
Totals: 213/406 = 52.5%

As you can see, Pujols and A-Rod have hit almost the exact same amount of solo shots to total shots: 220 for AP vs 213 for AR and 405 for AP vs 406 for AR. Impressive all around. I will take this opportunity to not take a cheap shot by saying I hate the Yankees and A-Rod happened to be caught using steroids in this time, whereas Pujols has, as far as we know, not.

Anyway, there does not seem to be a trend for Rodriguez that would indicate that he is instilling a growing fear into the hearts and minds of pitchers. Again, SSS.

I considered the fact that the AL plays baseball a bit differently and often features more home runs and more home run hitters. I figured the easiest comparison would be home run hitters from a friendly ballpark so I chose Coors Field, and 2001-2004 Todd Helton and 2005-2010 Matt Holliday. Perhaps Larry Walker would have been a better choice, but it's too late now. Their numbers?

2001: 28/48 = 58.3%
2002: 18/29 = 62.1%
2003: 22/32 = 68.8%
2004: 22/31 = 70.0%
--
2005: 6/18 = 33.3%
2006: 19/33 = 57.6%
2007: 18/35 = 51.4%
2008: 18/24 = 75.0%
2009: 11/23 = 47.8%
2010: 13/25 = 52.0%
Totals: 175/298 = 58.7%

As I expected, Holliday's numbers were not surprising for someone I consider a dangerous hitter but nobody that a pitcher is actually afraid to face of the likes of this decade's Bonds Pujols A-Rod etc. However, Helton's solo shot percentages are quite high - perhaps due to the protection of having to face Larry Walker and several other 30-HR guys in that time?

The 2007-2010 percentages for Pujols made me consider IBBs for these respective sets. A-Rod has 78, Pujols 232, and Helton/Holliday 109. Pujols by the years:

2001: 6
2002: 13
2003: 12
2004: 12
2005: 27
2006: 28
2007: 22
2008: 34
2009: 44
2010: 34 and counting
Total: 232

When compared to his solo shots numbers, his average IBBs have increased when his solo shot percentages have increased. In 2005 and 2006 his IBBs increased significantly but his solo percentages did not - however, those were lineups that featured Larry Walker ('05) and Rolen and Edmonds in both years to provide dangerous cleanup hitting. From 2007-2008 it seems the consensus in the media was that the Cardinals had no legitimate backup for Pujols, but 2008 of course featured Ludwick's crazy awesome season, and 2007 showed Lil Dunc's once-promising 21 HR season and 2008 had Glaus at 20+ and 2009 brought in Holliday.

Still, after the 2003-2005 seasons it seems that teams stopped being afraid of what the Cardinals brought to the table - work around Pujols and there's not much to fear. Even with Holliday having a good year (disappointing for me compared to his contract) we all know there isn't anything in the 6-9 and 1-2 spots to really worry about. What went from a promising 1-6 of (what I wanted to see) Rasmus > Lopez > Holliday > Pujols > Ludwick > Rasmus lineup has of course turned into Schu > * > Pujols > Holliday > Rasmus > * * etc.

I guess what I'm getting is that these small samples seem to show that pitchers/managers/whatever are afraid of Pujols moreso than any other player in the game and that they are becoming increasingly comfortable with not letting him hit.

Assuming Pujols's power numbers do not begin fading in the next few years from wear and tear, I believe this means the Ludwick trade was not only terrible for this season, but will impact the team for the next several years. Colby must maintain his power threat and stay healthy, and Freese must be healthy in order to add some stability and to the lineup - something neither of them has thus far shown.

And for GOB's sake, we need to install some high OBP players in front of Pujols - aka some young, cheap talent from hmm, the minors maybe? Trading the 3rd biggest power threat and playing the gritty vets is not only hurting the team, but limiting the best player in baseball from showing that he might actually be able to put up greater numbers than he already has, something I am not sure if I believe possible. So I suppose I will end with this: It is time for TLR to go. I liked him until 2008 or so and I grew up with him, but there always comes a time..and I hope that time does not effect Pujols's future location.

I'm gonna tell you story..

So you may have heard of this thing called the Olympics. They got the summer olypmics..and the winter ones. Every 2 years we're blessed with some of the finest physical specimens competing at games of talent and prowess. It's awesome. When I talk to people like my friend Kevin (best name ever) and he tells me he's not watching the olympics and could care less, I want to punch him. Right in the gonads. Because they're fantastic.

And this is about sports, in general. Only related to baseball in the sense that baseball is also a drinking game. The olympics are not to be trifled with. To not take them seriously, in any aspect (Olympics, special olympics, elementary school olympics, whatever), would be a dishonor to what they stand for. The pinnacle of human leisure - sport.

And I have found myself recruited onto a beer olympics team, due to a roadtrip to Yarrow, MO and their bar. Which was the only building in sight, and was fantastic. Anyway, the team came to fruition. 5 of the greatest beer drinkers in Kirksville, MO in the last half decade. We've got the experience. We didn't know why we'd been drinking so much from 2005-2010, but now we do. Beer olympics. Right before all of us move away from this shithole for good. Beer. Fucking. Olympics. The culmination of our alcoholism.

So this week we're in training. Because we're not pussyfooting around with this.

We are in this for the sport. For the spirit of competition. We're gonna do this right.

Beer pong, flip cup, pitcher quarters, quarters, and baseball. It always comes down to baseball, doesn't it? The greatest sport to grace our good Earth. And also, a good drinking game.

So we're gonna drink some beer. All day. Every day. And we're gonna win, because the competition are young and oblivious to what we're about to do.

Normally I make my posts while I'm motivated and have a nice cup of coffee..

But today, not so much. Today is whiskey for breakfast, and I'm still drunk from the bottle of whiskey and beers last night. According to medical experts I should be dead, but I'm just so god damn resilient.

Today I will be commenting on love.

What does this have to do with baseball or sports? A lot, and at the same time, almost nothing at all.

I can safely say I love my family, I love some of my friends, and I love baseball. These are the few things in life that I can safely say I love. I give credit to my parents for raising me properly and understanding the true value of love. Baseball is fantastic. This is a short post because I could write a book on how much I love baseball, but nothing can sum it up better than simply stating that I love it.

Thank mother earth it isn't winter anymore.

7..is a serious number (Matt Holliday)

Now playing: Johnny Cash - Hurt (followed by more JC)

This is about 7 weeks too late, but hey, I'm slow you know?

Matt Holliday is a long-term Cardinal. Sorry to repeat the details as I'm sure you've already seen them 317 times, but I am trying to make this as casual-baseball-fan-friendly as possible.

7 years, $120,000,000 for 2010-2016 with a club option + incentives:

> $50,000 for each All-Star Game appearance
> $50,000 for each Gold Glove awarded
> $50,000 for each Silver Slugger awarded
> $200,000 for finishing first in MVP voting, $100,000 for finishing second and $50,000 for finishing third
> $50,000 if named NLDS MVP
> $100,000 if named NLCS MVP
> $150,000 if named WS MVP (so in the next 7 years he's gonna make up to $1,050,000 - seeing as the Cardinals are gonna win the World Series 7 times in a row, although I can't guarantee he will be MVP every time)
> Gets a suite in every hotel on road trips (probably only a few hundred dollars difference per night, which sounds like a lot but if you divide his $17mil/year contract by at bats [581 in '09] he makes $29,260 EVERY time he steps up to the plate, even if he strikes out on 3 straight down the middle..damn)

Upon this resigning, he has also switched his jersey number from 15 to 7. Sucks for all you Holliday t-shirt buyers last season! Number 15 was of course Jimmy Edmonds' for 8 years from 2000-2007 before being traded away after a fallout with some part of the Cardinals organization. Some gave Holliday shit for taking #15 upon arriving mid-season last year which was a big scandal for no reason. Furthermore, some argue #15 deserves to be retired by the Cardinals in honor of Edmonds. However, when looking at the Great Ones that are forever ingrained in Cardinals lore, I'm not sure if he's quite qualified, even though he was amazingly entertaining to watch and a staple of the Cardinals decade.

Anyway, it seems Holliday had several more reasons to switch numbers. Maybe his 7-year contract. Maybe because Mickey Mantle, also an Oklahoma native like Holliday, wore #7. Maybe because great players often wear single digit numbers. Maybe because he's making (potentially) the rest of his life as a Cardinal great. Check out the list of current #'s retired by the Birds on the Bat:

#1 - Ozzie Smith
#2 - Red Schoendienst
#5 - Albert Pujols (well, not yet, but I can't just skip over him..)
#6 - Stan Musial
??#7 - Matt Holliday (gets 2 Q-marks because who knows what he'll do)
#9 - Enos Slaughter
#14 - Ken Boyer
???#15 - Jim Edmonds (long-shot)
#17 - Dizzy Dean
#17 - Lou Brock
#42 - Bruce Sutter
#45 - Bob Gibson
#85 - August Busch (number chosen because he was retired on his 85th birthday)

That takes us through 2016, and there's an option for 2017. I will go from 22 to almost 30 by the time Matt Holliday enters new contract negotiations or retires. Jesus H. That's hard to think about. But that brings us to the next point. 7 years from now, who knows what happens. However, we do have a thing called the past, so let's check out what was happening..

In 2003..

> The Marlins defeat the Yankees in the World Series. I fucking hate the Yankees, good work Sunshine state.

> The Cardinals finished the season 3rd in the NL Central division, behind *shudders* the Cubs. Bright spots: Albert Pujols. Mike Matheny, Scott Rolen, Jimmy Ballgame, and Edgar Renteria won Gold Gloves. TLR reaches a managing milestone, notching his 2,000th win.

> The Steve Bartman incident. Thank you from the bottoms of Cardinal Nation's hearts for destroying the Cubs playoff run. Probably one of the top 100 things I've witnessed in my lifetime.

> The St. Louis Blues finish their season 39-30-11 and go to the playoffs for the 25th year in a row. Damn. We finally made it back last season, and let's hope for a post-Olympic miracle and start another streak. Off the '03 team, Keith Tkachuk and Barret Jackman are still on the '010 team.

> The St. Louis Rams finished their season going 12-4, advancing to the playoffs but losing early. Since 2007, in 3 seasons, the rams have won a grand total of half the 2003 teams wins. 6.

> Facebook wouldn't exist even to Harvard students for another year. The idea of Twitter probably hadn't even been conceived by a group of stoners thinking up new ideas before forgetting them soon after. Now look at how integrated we are to social media networks..

> The Space Shuttle Columbia disintegrates upon re-entry into the atmosphere. 7 KIA, RIP.

> Iraq war begins and within 2 months, Mission Accomplished was formerly declared. Glad we wrapped that up back then. Dumbasses.

> Martha Stewart scandal. Can't blame her, if someone told me I was about to get fucked, I probably wouldn't bend over and let it happen.

> The International Olympic Committee named Vancouver the host of these amazing 2010 Winter Olympic games. You guys see that USA vs Canadaland hockey game? Goalie shit Batman.

> Xbox, PS2 and GameCube make their debut. Fucking Xbox is 2 generations older in 7 years and the Wii is fucking crazy and can give you tennis elbow from playing too much Wii tenis. But apparently lots of people use it for good exercise, so that's awesome. Gotta love technology.

> Cialis was introduced. In 2016 I might look back at this blog post and find it funny that I was making fun of Cialis when I might be needing it by that age..

> Pirates of the Caribbean trilogy was beginning, Matrix trilogy in the middle, LotR trilogy ending; Finding Nemo, Kill Bill Vol. 1 and Terminator 3 came out.

> June Carter Cash and Johnny Cash died. RIP.

> Arrested Development premiered. RIP.

> Uday and Qusay Hussein died. Saddam was captured. RIPieces.

> Christmas was unfortunately celebrated. Hate that holiday. Like Holliday

Ushering in the "new" month..

Happy birthday to my friend Katie, although she nor anyone else will ever probably stumble across this pitiful excuse of a blog.


Must say I like how the Blues ended the pre-Olympic season. A lot stronger performance, about how I've expected them to play ever since their best-2nd-half-record-in-NHL in early 2009. Finally. Hope this carries over..

And on the subject of BASEBALL (every day this winter gets a little bit brighter, a little bit greener)..

Just gonna say it now, but here's my early 2010 prediction, mostly because I like the kid (older than me but referring to him as a kid is still somehow legit), his mustache, and his personality and his skill-set and not because of any technical observations or clairvoyance:

Mark McGwire will open Brendan Ryan's eyes and Albert 'El 'The Mang' Hombre''/my mancrush Pujols will teach him a thing or 5 about baserunning and playing that clichéd hard 9 innings - culminating in a legitimate leadoff hitter batting .300+ with a .400+ OBP and enough speed to net 20 or more stolen bases. Said it, right here.

If not, he can still grow a badass mustache so it's ok.

~12 days 'til I can figure out whether or not I'll be able to attend my 2nd Spring Training in a row (and/or total).

peace

On the topic of Mark McGwire..

Oh wait, the Blues won! In the first 4.5 minutes or so, the Blues scored twice on the road in French Canadialand following a tough loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets. Not a bad loss in the large perspective--they had won the previous 4 games and may have been tired and given up one--but this new House of Payne has seen the team playing much better. They have been more aggressive and I think that fact has spurred the defense and goal tending to last season's best-2nd-half-NHL-winning-record-form.

As soon as the 3rd period hit I had that sinking realization similar to having to poop, at the pit of the stomach or abdomen: The Blues have played awful in the 3rd period whenever they play well the rest of the game. Or maybe the feeling was a by-product of me trying to catch up on the shot-per-goal drinking game (it wound up being 7 btw). Either way, I don't know if it's because they are exhausted, which undoubtedly they are, but mayhaps more so then the other team?

All I knew was the 3-1 lead was in jeopardy (greatest gameshow ever btw) and the following goal by Pouliot confirmed my fears. And I got nervous, I knew what was coming. At the 1 minute mark my teeth clenched like I was at the dentist and that bitch (a very nice, warm person actually) was ripping my gums out. That kind of payne. If anyone ever reads this and wants to ask andy katie or tim, I called this entire game before it happened.

Props to Andy McDonald, after an amazing game-saving save by Mr. Conklin, for saving my night. It led to $5 pitchers at trivia night where I was too happy, as opposed to wallowing.

Oh, Mark McGwire..oh yeah, forgot about him because he hasn't been in the news recently. Bill McClellan, a columnist for the STL P-D and my dad's favorite, doesn't necessarily touch sports all that often. But it's the St. Louis paper and like any citizen of Our Great Cardinal Nation, he has an opinion.

Bill McClellan on the evolution of the Cardinals fan

And it's a good one. If you like to be insulted as a Cardinals fan. And it doesn't change how I feel about certain players.

I will always love Mark McGwire, hell I had a fucking lucky charm that I would put in my pocket for every game when it was clear he would chase The Record. I grew up watching baseball, but I was a kid. I thought I was a part of history.

The Chase was in middle school, when I was old enough to start barely thinking for myself, and 1998 was the year I realized I loved baseball, not just liked it. Does my level of devotion and enjoyment stem from steroids? I hope not, but it stems from that time, and I just can't make myself harbor ill-feelings to any of those players.

That was then, I was a kid. This is now, I'm 22. Barry Bonds was in high school, an enemy of McGwire. Different story then.

You get caught cheating now and I will despise you. And if a Cardinal gets caught cheating now? I will be devestated and destroyed.

But I think that maybe what McClellan misses in his article is that, while McG may have cheated, McG might just be the only reason a lot of the fans lovethe game enough to care about it. He brought us in. He kept bringing us back.

If McGwire were caught in 2010, it would be like Albert Pujols being called out. It would make me seriously consider quitting baseball and moving to hockey full-time. But like I said, I was a kid, and a lot of other people were too, and a lot more people around the country and world were adults but just not baseball fans. Now we are. And now we care, a lot more, because of #25. We're hypocritical. It's ironic. But that's the truth.

And that's the answer to Herzog's quote in Mike Smith's article on stltoday.com about McGwire. Don't know if it's in the paper copy of the P-D since I'm away at school, but I wish I had read it on the front page at home. Anyway, the quote:

“The people in in St. Louis give Mark McGwire a standing ovation the other day, and Jack Clark said every steroid user should be banned from baseball, and they booed him. Now, what the hell is the matter with society when that happens?”

I just stated my opinion on cheering McGwire as a player. Hypocritical, wrong, whatever. Let's not even get into his coaching thing 'til at least spring. But Herzog is spot on with his assessment of Clark's treatment. Fuck that booing.

I met Jack Clark as a kid and he stuck around until WELL after he had to at a River City Rascal's game to sign my t-shirt. It was him and one college-age player. 10 fans. Everything else in the stadium was empty except employees. My dad talked to him, I don't know about what. But he was an amazing player to watch, and maybe I met him on a good day, but he was an amazing human to meet as well.

Don't boo him for being a devoted baseball purist before a lot of McGwire fans even knew what watching a home run was like.

Next Up? Maybe my NL/AL views.

the worst part about winter - no baseball

Let me start by saying that I do not expect anyone to ever read any of this. I have nothing different, new or exciting to offer any sports fan that isn't readily available in higher quality at many of the other wonderful blogs and websites run by Cardinals fans. Viva El Birdos, link down to the left, has a great community and is a great place for hardcore or casual fans. The analysis and debate featured there is great. Check that shit out. I cuss too much for a lot of people, so don't bother if you can't handle mere words.

That being said, I am a college student going to school in Kirksville, MO. Grew up in St. Louis county and can't remember a time in my life that I was not a Cardinals fan. I have a miscellaneous collection of Cardinals memorabilia that is probably minuscule compared to a true collector, but I have no money so I pick up free things, garage sale items, etc. Only pictures I have on my PC:





The 2009 baseball season was the first one where I was able to spend money and effort into actually attending games. I've gone to 1-5 games or so a season since at least 1993, the first year I have ticket stubs for. Last season I went full circle. I attended two spring training games in Jupiter, followed by my first Opening Day, 8 games throughout the season, and concluded by my 10th and final game of the year, that fateful Saturday night vs. the Dodgers where Busch Stadium was quieter than I have ever heard before. They served hot chocolate at that first and last game. I drank beer instead. Beer an inning is the preferred method for Cardinals games at my home.